Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.017028 0.019265 0.021686 0.024503 0.027690 0.031185 0.035311
2025-10-12 0.013653 0.016768 0.020425 0.025039 0.030709 0.037457 0.046109
2025-10-19 0.011859 0.015404 0.019804 0.025672 0.033305 0.042912 0.055951
2025-10-26 0.010294 0.013998 0.018809 0.025524 0.034674 0.046733 0.063882
2025-11-02 0.009152 0.012949 0.018078 0.025528 0.036095 0.050590 0.072060
2025-11-09 0.008090 0.011859 0.017132 0.025066 0.036735 0.053323 0.078806
2025-11-16 0.007435 0.011258 0.016783 0.025368 0.038419 0.057591 0.088049
2025-11-23 0.006746 0.010525 0.016151 0.025158 0.039275 0.060655 0.095688
2025-11-30 0.006353 0.010194 0.016074 0.025758 0.041378 0.065720 0.106793
2025-12-07 0.005698 0.009385 0.015179 0.024973 0.041204 0.067181 0.112228
2025-12-14 0.005208 0.008794 0.014570 0.024581 0.041599 0.069538 0.119265
2025-12-21 0.004714 0.008151 0.013816 0.023872 0.041387 0.070843 0.124585
2025-12-28 0.004566 0.008086 0.014031 0.024840 0.044139 0.077408 0.139663
2026-01-04 0.004359 0.007902 0.014026 0.025425 0.046274 0.083084 0.153684
2026-01-11 0.004180 0.007749 0.014057 0.026067 0.048547 0.089165 0.168938
2026-01-18 0.003898 0.007384 0.013675 0.025916 0.049342 0.092613 0.179547
2026-01-25 0.003665 0.007087 0.013392 0.025920 0.050413 0.096634 0.191562
2026-02-01 0.003391 0.006689 0.012887 0.025451 0.050530 0.098840 0.200184
2026-02-08 0.003237 0.006511 0.012785 0.025758 0.052181 0.104120 0.215375
2026-02-15 0.003034 0.006220 0.012439 0.025544 0.052766 0.107329 0.226584
2026-02-22 0.002939 0.006137 0.012497 0.026153 0.055073 0.114167 0.245923
2026-03-01 0.002703 0.005744 0.011900 0.025357 0.054381 0.114788 0.252046
2026-03-08 0.002526 0.005462 0.011508 0.024958 0.054495 0.117084 0.261970